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　　Last week Rabobank, the world’s largest Ag-Bank released their 3rd quarter perspective on Global Pork Markets.

　　上周全球最大的農(nóng)業(yè)銀行荷蘭合作銀行發(fā)布了第三季度全球豬肉市場(chǎng)報(bào)告。

　　“The enormous cull” of China’s hog herd over the last 18 months is pressuring production, causing China to expand imports into 2016.

　　中國(guó)豬群在過(guò)去18個(gè)月的“大量淘汰”壓縮了產(chǎn)量，導(dǎo)致中國(guó)在2016年要增加進(jìn)口量。

　　Rabobank animal protein analyst Albert Vernooji says, “The main questions are when Chinese Import growth will start, how much volume growth there will be and what the support for pork prices will be across the globe.”

　　荷蘭合作銀行動(dòng)物蛋白分析師Albert Vernooji說(shuō)：“主要的問(wèn)題是中國(guó)將在何時(shí)開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)，多大的增長(zhǎng)會(huì)對(duì)全球的豬肉價(jià)格起到支撐作用。”

　　Rabobank also says:

　　荷蘭合作銀行同時(shí)認(rèn)為：

　　China’s imports will expand second half of 2015 and into 2016.

　　中國(guó)將在下半年至2016年增加進(jìn)口。

　　In the US, the question is if Q2’s margin recovery will continue, as the strong supply rebound will likely be partially absorbed by expected growth in exports to China.

　　由于強(qiáng)大的供應(yīng)反彈將有可能被對(duì)中國(guó)出口的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)部分吸收，美國(guó)的問(wèn)題是第2季度的利潤(rùn)是否會(huì)繼續(xù)得到改善。

　　The EU market has ample opportunities for price and margin improvement.

　　歐盟市場(chǎng)有機(jī)會(huì)得到價(jià)格和利潤(rùn)的改善。

　　Continuing disease outbreaks in Mexico and South Korea support high prices and strong import demands.

　　墨西哥和韓國(guó)的持續(xù)疫情推動(dòng)了高價(jià)格和強(qiáng)勁的進(jìn)口需求。

　　China

　　中國(guó)

　　We agree with Rabobank about China’s import potential here and now.

　　我們同意荷蘭合作銀行對(duì)目前中國(guó)進(jìn)口潛力的認(rèn)可。

　　Three Key Numbers:

　　三個(gè)關(guān)鍵數(shù)字：

　　China market hog inventory is 57 million lower than 2 years ago – down 2 million head a week.

　　中國(guó)商品豬存欄比2年前減少5700萬(wàn)頭，每周減少200 萬(wàn)頭。

　　China sow inventory is down 10.3 million from two years ago.

　　中國(guó)母豬存欄比2年前下降了1030萬(wàn)頭。

　　China market hog price is now $1.25 US live weight a pound. Mid-April it was 85? a pound US. That is a price increase of $100 per head.

　　中國(guó)現(xiàn)在的生豬價(jià)格為1.25美元/磅活重。4月中旬為85美分/磅。每頭豬的價(jià)格上漲了100美元。

　　Less hogs, less sows, and the most important part, hog prices that have rocketed higher reflecting decreased supply and solid demand. The spread between China and the US live weight price is about 70? or $175 per head!!! We are betting that this very moment this price spread is leading to loading of containers of pork to be shipped now. Capitalism will push pork to China.

　　生豬減少、母豬減少，最重要的是，生豬價(jià)格的飛漲反映了供應(yīng)量的下降和強(qiáng)勁的需求。中國(guó)與美國(guó)活豬價(jià)格的差價(jià)約為70美分，即每頭175美元!我們打賭，此時(shí)此刻的這個(gè)差價(jià)正在帶來(lái)豬肉集裝箱的裝運(yùn)。資本主義將把豬肉推向中國(guó)。

　　China owned Smithfield Foods will lead the way. If they could move 100,000 carcass equivalent a week and gain $100 per head margin that is $10 million a week. Bet that China will keep American supply open!

　　中國(guó)老板的史密斯菲爾德食品會(huì)帶路。如果他們每周運(yùn)送相當(dāng)于10萬(wàn)頭胴體的產(chǎn)品，每頭獲利100美元，一周就是1000萬(wàn)美元。中國(guó)肯定會(huì)讓美國(guó)保持供應(yīng)開(kāi)放!

　　Country of Origin Labelling

　　原產(chǎn)國(guó)標(biāo)簽制度

　　Senate Agriculture Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) last Thursday offered an amendment to a highway-funding bill to repeal country of origin labelling requirements for beef, pork, and poultry and stave off trade retaliation from Canada and Mexico. A move hailed by NPPC – National Pork Producers Council.

　　美國(guó)參議院農(nóng)業(yè)主席帕特 · 羅伯茨(Pat Roberts，堪薩斯共和黨) 上周四提出公路基金法案的修訂案來(lái)廢除牛肉、 豬肉和家禽的原產(chǎn)國(guó)標(biāo)簽制度，并緩和了加拿大和墨西哥的貿(mào)易報(bào)復(fù)。全國(guó)豬肉生產(chǎn)者理事會(huì)(NPPC)所歡迎的一項(xiàng)舉措。

　　According to Iowa State University economist Dermot Hayes, the average US pork producer is expected to lose $10 per head beginning later this year and into next year, and based on these estimates retaliation from Canada and Mexico against US pork will likely double pork producer losses.

　　艾奧瓦州立大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家德莫特 · 海耶斯(Dermot Hayes)預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)豬肉生產(chǎn)商在今年晚些時(shí)候直到明年平均將損失10美元。在這基礎(chǔ)上，估計(jì)來(lái)自加拿大和墨西哥對(duì)美國(guó)豬肉的報(bào)復(fù)將有可能給豬肉生產(chǎn)者帶來(lái)雙倍損失。

　　Let’s hope the US senate supports Senator Robert’s amendment and business can get getting on.

　　讓我們祝愿美國(guó)參議院支持羅伯茨參議員的修正案，這樣行業(yè)可以得到發(fā)展。