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　　The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture’s Swine March Inventory Report indicates a decline of 700,000 sows in the last month. In the first three months of 2015, Chinese Government data indicates 2.5 million sows have been eliminated. In the last 12 months, 7.5 million sows have been liquidated, bringing the Chinese Sow Inventory to 40.425 million sows. It’s a continuing unprecedented decline in China’s production capacity, and with 700,000 more gone last month a scenario that is far from over.

　　中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部三月份的生豬存欄報(bào)告表明，上個(gè)月份母豬減少700,000頭。2015年前三個(gè)月，中國(guó)政府?dāng)?shù)據(jù)表明，已經(jīng)淘汰250萬(wàn)母豬。在過(guò)去12個(gè)月中，中國(guó)母豬已經(jīng)淘汰了750萬(wàn)頭母豬，存欄下降為4042.5萬(wàn)頭。中國(guó)的產(chǎn)能出現(xiàn)了空前的持續(xù)衰退，從上個(gè)月減少的70萬(wàn)頭可以看到這一過(guò)程還未結(jié)束。

　　The Hog Market Inventory on March 01, 2015 was 389.93 million, down 40 million from the same time a year ago. If it takes 25 weeks for a hog to go from birth to market that is an average of 1.6 million fewer hogs per week coming to slaughter over the next 6 months. That’s a heck of a lot less pork available and with the sow herd liquidation ongoing there will be even fewer hogs to go to market in 2016.

　　2015年3月1日商品豬存欄是38,993萬(wàn)頭，比去年同期減少了4000萬(wàn)頭。豬從出生到出欄需要25周時(shí)間，在接下來(lái)6個(gè)月時(shí)間內(nèi)，每周出欄頭數(shù)將減少160萬(wàn)頭左右。豬肉數(shù)量大量減少。隨著母豬群的持續(xù)淘汰，2016年的出欄數(shù)甚至可能更低。

　　China’s hog prices are about 95? USD a pound liveweight that is currently up about 5? a pound this past month. The challenge for Chinese producers is Corn at $10 USD a bushel, Soybean meal $550 USD a ton, lots of diseases, and low productivity. Truth is 95? US liveweight a pound or over $200 per market hog is near breakeven or for many, losses.

　　中國(guó)的生豬價(jià)格約為95美分/磅活重，上個(gè)月上漲了約5美分/磅。中國(guó)生產(chǎn)者面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是玉米價(jià)格達(dá)10美元/蒲式耳，豆粕價(jià)格為550美元/噸以及大量的疾病和低下的生產(chǎn)效率。事實(shí)是95美分/磅活重的價(jià)格，即每頭生豬200美元，這差不多是很多人的盈虧平衡點(diǎn)，仍然虧損。

　　We have been writing for several months that China will at some point be down 2 million hogs per week (give or take total US slaughter per week). We are getting closer. We believe that the equivalent of 100,000 hogs a week exported from the US to China is a market mover. Same scenario for EU countries. It will happen, capitalism is alive and well; pork will move at unprecedented levels to China. It’s already started and like a snowball going down a hill will just have to continue to get bigger.

　　我們這幾個(gè)月一直在說(shuō)，中國(guó)將在某一時(shí)刻每周減少200萬(wàn)頭生豬(美國(guó)每周的總屠宰量)。我們?cè)絹?lái)越接近了。我們相信，從美國(guó)到中國(guó)每周相當(dāng)于100,000頭豬的出口量是市場(chǎng)推手。歐盟國(guó)家是相同的情況。這很正常，資本主義會(huì)很好地起作用。運(yùn)往中國(guó)的豬肉將會(huì)達(dá)到前所未有的水平。這已經(jīng)開(kāi)始，像雪球下坡一樣將只會(huì)不斷增大。

　　Cash Market

　　現(xiàn)貨市場(chǎng)

　　The US hog price continues its relentless increase. On Friday, Iowa – Minnesota averaged 74.94? lean a pound up 6? on the week. Since the release of the March 1 Hogs and Pigs Report on March 27 lean hog months have gained 6 cents a pound.

　　美國(guó)生豬價(jià)格繼續(xù)不斷上漲。周五，艾奧瓦州-明尼蘇達(dá)州的平均價(jià)格為74.94美元/瘦肉豬，本周上漲6美分。美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部3月27日發(fā)布了3月1日生豬報(bào)告以來(lái)，瘦肉豬每磅上漲了6美分。

　　Observations

　　觀察

　　·US National Daily Base Lean Hog weights a year ago were 219.84 pounds. This past week lean hog weights were 6 pounds lighter at 213.9. 6 pounds is about 8 pounds liveweight. If we use 2 pounds gain per day, that’s 4 days production, or about 1 million hogs pulled ahead this year compared to last year. The US has marketed about 2 million more hogs this year compared to last or a 5.6% increase. Take one million out due to pull ahead, it moves year over year marketings to 2.8%. The USDA December 1 Hog Inventory Report indicated a 2% increase year over year in market inventory. They are the Pigs we marketed year to date.

　　·去年，美國(guó)全國(guó)每日瘦肉豬基準(zhǔn)體重是219.84磅。上周，瘦肉豬重量減少至213.9磅，減少6磅。這6磅相當(dāng)于8磅的活重。如果我們假設(shè)每天增重2磅，這相當(dāng)于4天的產(chǎn)量。這意味著今年與去年同期相比，減少了約100萬(wàn)頭豬。美國(guó)今年比去年多出欄約200萬(wàn)頭生豬，增長(zhǎng)了5.6%。由于重量下降減去100萬(wàn)頭，同比出欄量增加了2.8%。美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部12月1日生豬存欄報(bào)告表明，生豬存欄同比增長(zhǎng)2%。這些豬就是我們今年迄今所出欄的生豬。

　　·Maybe it is convoluted Farmer Arithmetic but we believe that US Inventory as of December 1 of a 2% increase was correct. The year to date hog marketing difference of over 5% more is due to pulling weights down and pushing marketings ahead.

　　·也許土算法令人費(fèi)解，但我們相信美國(guó)12月1日存欄中2%的增量是正確的。今年迄今超過(guò)5%的生豬出欄差異是由于重量下降及出欄推進(jìn)所致。

　　·The March 1, 2015 Market Inventory is similar to 2013’s. In the summer of 2013 lean hogs were in the mid-90s. We continue to believe that’s where this market is going. Why? More pork to China, high beef prices, stronger US economy, more people, but most importantly we see no overriding conditions that will slow the US pork prices to reach 2013 levels this summer. We know we are way out there with our thoughts. The Ag – economists have predicted 70-74? per pound this summer. We point out we are already at 74? and the seasonal decline in hog marketings just started.

　　·2015年3月1日的商品豬存欄與2013年相似。2013年夏季的生豬價(jià)格在95美分左右。我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為市場(chǎng)將向這個(gè)方向發(fā)展。為什么呢?越來(lái)越多的豬肉運(yùn)往中國(guó)、牛肉價(jià)格上漲、美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)走強(qiáng)、人口增加，但最重要的是我們沒(méi)有看到任何會(huì)減緩美國(guó)豬肉價(jià)格在今年夏天達(dá)到2013年水平的意外條件。我們知道我們有我們的思維方式。農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)今年夏天會(huì)達(dá)到每磅70~74美分。我們指出，我們已經(jīng)是74美分，生豬出欄數(shù)的季節(jié)性下降剛剛開(kāi)始。

　　Hang On – Yippee – Yi – Yo – this is going to be interesting!

　　堅(jiān)持住，現(xiàn)在越來(lái)越有趣了!