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導(dǎo)讀：2022年11月29日，清華大學(xué)戰(zhàn)略與安全研究中心研究員、中國論壇特約專家、國防部國際軍事合作辦公室安全合作中心前主任周波，在訪英期間接受Financial Times《金融時報》（簡稱FT）視頻專訪。周波表示，自俄烏沖突爆發(fā)以來，中國始終秉持公正中立的原則。中方發(fā)揮的最大作用就是不火上澆油，同時堅決反對使用核武器。這是中國對推動停火談判、恢復(fù)地區(qū)和平穩(wěn)定的重要貢獻(xiàn)。12月9日，《金融時報》在其網(wǎng)站視頻欄目頭條播出該專訪。

《金融時報》：中國發(fā)現(xiàn)自己在烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭中的處境不易，北京與俄羅斯“沒有止境的友誼”，使其站在了自身最大的貿(mào)易伙伴——歐洲的對立面。這引發(fā)了一些關(guān)鍵問題。最關(guān)鍵之一是，北京能否利用其對莫斯科的影響力來制止俄羅斯使用核武器？一旦戰(zhàn)斗最終結(jié)束，中國認(rèn)為自己將在其中扮演什么角色？我今天邀請到周波大校參與討論，他是中國人民解放軍的退役軍官，現(xiàn)任清華大學(xué)戰(zhàn)略與安全研究中心高級研究員，歡迎周大校。

周波：謝謝主持人。

《金融時報》：您覺得烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭對俄羅斯有什么影響嗎？正如我剛提到的，中國與俄羅斯有著“沒有止境的友誼”，你是否覺得這種關(guān)系現(xiàn)在正處于緊張狀態(tài)？

周波：中國當(dāng)然不希望這場戰(zhàn)爭發(fā)生，我相信沒有人希望這場戰(zhàn)爭發(fā)生。我想，即便是普京總統(tǒng)也會后悔打這場戰(zhàn)爭，因為其結(jié)果是顯而易見的。他無法承擔(dān)戰(zhàn)敗的后果，也很難贏得這場戰(zhàn)爭。

當(dāng)提到這場戰(zhàn)爭的時候，你提到了一個非常重要的詞，而這個詞在國際媒體上經(jīng)常被錯誤地引述，即所謂“沒有止境的友誼”，雖然被引用的方式是正確的，但這個詞也被誤解得最厲害。

試想一下，當(dāng)人與人之間談?wù)撚颜x時，當(dāng)然希望這種友誼能夠持久，我們肯定不說：“盡管我們之間存在友誼，但這種友誼是有限度的”。是的，我們不會說友誼是有限的，所以，（中俄）這樣的表述是一種善意。

同時，在這個詞所在的聲明中（注：即2022年2月4日中俄關(guān)于新時代國際關(guān)系和全球可持續(xù)發(fā)展的聯(lián)合聲明），我們也明確提出，這不是一個軍事聯(lián)盟。

《金融時報》：現(xiàn)在中俄在烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭問題上存在分歧嗎？你是否覺得在中國對于俄羅斯在烏克蘭的所作所為存在緊張情緒？

周波：中國當(dāng)然不愿意看到戰(zhàn)爭，因為它嚴(yán)重影響了中國的利益。

我所說的中國利益，是中國作為世界上最大的貿(mào)易國、工業(yè)國，我們的利益幾乎無處不在。俄烏戰(zhàn)爭實際上已經(jīng)影響了中國的 "一帶一路"倡議和發(fā)展，它還影響了中國與許多歐洲國家的關(guān)系，這些國家認(rèn)為，中國應(yīng)該選邊站，站在反對俄羅斯的一邊。因此，這場戰(zhàn)爭在許多方面對中國造成了損失。

中國在這個問題上被夾在兩個朋友之間，不得不謹(jǐn)慎行事。問題是，朋友的敵人就一定是我的敵人嗎？不盡然。而且我認(rèn)為，中國的立場得到了雙方的理解，話雖如此，這并不意味著中國會袖手旁觀，任由事態(tài)發(fā)展，中國不會也不能袖手旁觀。

因為中國是一個大國，需要承擔(dān)大國的責(zé)任。面對這樣一場戰(zhàn)爭，中國的責(zé)任是什么？那就是，不干火上澆油的事。

毋庸置疑，這場戰(zhàn)爭關(guān)乎主權(quán)這一重要問題，它是一國對另一國的入侵，但與此同時，人們往往忘記為什么會發(fā)生這場戰(zhàn)爭。自前蘇聯(lián)以來，從戈爾巴喬夫、葉利欽，再到普京總統(tǒng)，他們都曾警告過北約不要繼續(xù)擴(kuò)張，但北約都充耳不聞。普京的不同之處在于，他把這種警告付諸于軍事行動。

普京出席新聞發(fā)布會（圖片來源：ICphoto）

《金融時報》：中國肯定算是俄羅斯的外交盟友，您認(rèn)為中國對俄羅斯有影響力嗎？如果中國確實對俄羅斯有影響力，中國能否利用這種影響力，來阻止俄羅斯將軍事沖突升級，阻止這場戰(zhàn)爭從烏克蘭波及歐洲其他地方？

周波：我認(rèn)為中國的影響力肯定是存在的。例如，我們來想想這個問題，全世界都在擔(dān)心普京可能會使用核武器，在此問題上，中國發(fā)聲很重要，關(guān)系到中俄友誼，這個問題更加重要。中國可能已經(jīng)在緩和事態(tài)發(fā)展中發(fā)揮了重要作用。

《金融時報》：是的，那么這是中國在主動發(fā)揮影響？還是中國坐等俄羅斯自我克制，不在任何可能的情況下使用核武器？

周波：正如我之前所說，這對中國來說是一個兩難的局面。但中國是世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，還是聯(lián)合國安理會常任理事國，在這樣一個完全基于人性的問題上，中國必須發(fā)聲，中國必須向國際社會展示什么是正確的事情，什么事情永遠(yuǎn)不能做。

如果我們關(guān)注全球南方國家，其實有許多國家或多或少會同情俄羅斯的立場，所以當(dāng)我們談?wù)撌澜缬^時，我們不能只談西方人的想法，我們必須考慮全世界對這個問題的反應(yīng)。

《金融時報》：中國會把烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭主要歸咎于誰？是北約的東擴(kuò)，還是普京的行動？

周波：我想說，很大程度上北約的擴(kuò)張是俄羅斯實際采取這種行動的根本原因。對于軍事聯(lián)盟來說，它們必須找到一個威脅來證明自己的存在，來證明擴(kuò)張的合理性，因為它們以擴(kuò)張為生。但當(dāng)我想到北約時，我認(rèn)為北約的持續(xù)存在，在道義上是站不住腳的。

我為什么會這么說？因為如果一群小國聯(lián)合起來對抗一個大國，那我可以理解，但如果是地球上最強(qiáng)大的國家聯(lián)合起來，那我就得想想，這到底是為什么？還是政治的原因。因為你們在軍事上已經(jīng)足夠強(qiáng)大了。

躲入地鐵站避難的烏克蘭民眾（圖片來源：ICphoto）

《金融時報》：我認(rèn)為中國的形象和中國的聲譽(yù)在歐洲受損，是因為戰(zhàn)爭，也是因為中俄關(guān)系一直是......至少在言語表達(dá)上，是堅定不移的?，F(xiàn)在看來，我們可能會進(jìn)入一個新階段，走向結(jié)束烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭。您認(rèn)為中國是否真的想修復(fù)與歐洲的關(guān)系？

周波：我認(rèn)為得出中國形象受損的結(jié)論是錯誤的。我覺得西方必須思考中國所處的立場，不能僅僅通過自身視角，而應(yīng)該設(shè)身處地站在中國的立場上思考，也站在印度的立場上，站在全球南方國家的立場上，你會發(fā)現(xiàn)，中國的立場并非只此一家。

事實上，讓我們來談?wù)劻硪粋€問題，關(guān)于自由民主，如果這與（世界）秩序有關(guān)， 顯而易見的是，不僅世界變得不那么西方了，而且西方本身也在變得不那么西方。這不是我總結(jié)的，這是慕尼黑安全會議上得出的結(jié)論，這是其中一屆年會的主題。所以我們看到全球民主正在衰退，我相信（西方式）民主將繼續(xù)衰退，因為民主已經(jīng)衰退了大約15或16年。

《金融時報》：那么，中國對其與歐洲的關(guān)系有什么看法？如果俄烏戰(zhàn)爭走向尾聲，這是否為中國改善與歐洲的關(guān)系提供了機(jī)會？

周波：中國肯定希望確保與歐洲的良好關(guān)系，這意味著我們不希望歐洲總是站在美國一邊。這是中國的一個非常樸素善良的愿望，歐洲為我們提供了許多東西——高科技和市場等，這些都是中國需要的。

那么問題更多在于歐洲將如何看待中國？歐洲將中國描述為經(jīng)濟(jì)上的競爭者、某些方面的伙伴和系統(tǒng)性的對手，總而言之，這讓中國很困惑，我相信這一描述體現(xiàn)了整個歐洲的困惑，確實，在歐洲有許多口號是難以理解的，甚至對歐洲人來說也是如此，例如，戰(zhàn)略自主等等。我希望這場戰(zhàn)爭會使歐洲人更獨立地思考問題。

《金融時報》：終有一天，烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭會結(jié)束。到那時，您認(rèn)為中國會采取什么樣的姿態(tài)？比如說，中國是否有興趣幫助烏克蘭重建？我們都知道，中國一直在世界各地建設(shè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，并向"一帶一路"國家提供約一萬億美元的貸款用于建設(shè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。所以你認(rèn)為在戰(zhàn)爭結(jié)束后，中國可能會用這種方式幫助烏克蘭嗎？

周波：如果中國能在全世界范圍內(nèi)的"一帶一路"倡議中投資數(shù)萬億美元，中國怎會不去幫助一個對中國一直友好，又飽受戰(zhàn)爭蹂躪的國家？所以，這是有可能的。第二是關(guān)于中國在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)方面的能力，如果你看看世界上中國建造的道路、房屋或建筑物，我們的建設(shè)速度很快，且價格低廉，對于像烏克蘭這樣遭受戰(zhàn)爭摧殘的國家來說，這是很重要的。因此，我相信中國在戰(zhàn)后幫助重建一個更美麗的烏克蘭，不是能力超強(qiáng)，而是獨一無二。

《金融時報》：周大校，非常感謝你與我們交流。

周波：謝謝你。

（翻譯/中國論壇 程澤笠 許馨勻 | 核譯/武一琪、韓樺）

采訪英文實錄：

FT：China finds itself in an uncomfortable position over the war in Ukraine.Beijing's no-limits friendship with Russia puts it on the opposite side to its largest trade partner, Europe. This raises a number of key questions.

One of the most crucial is, can Beijing use its leverage with Moscow to restrain Russia from using nuclear weapons? And as Ukraine gets the upper hand militarily, what role does Beijing see for itself once the fighting is eventually over?

With me to discuss this is Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, a retired officer from China's People's Liberation Army, who is now a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.

Welcome, senior colonel.

Zhou Bo：Thank you, James.

FT：Could I start by just asking you how you feel the war in Ukraine is going for Russia? As I mentioned, China has a no-limits friendship with Russia.Do you feel that this friendship is now coming under strain?

Zhou Bo：Of course, China doesn't want to have this war, and I believe nobody wants to have this war. And I believe even President Putin would regret to have this war, because of the result, which is apparent. He could not afford to lose a war, but apparently, he can hardly win this war.

When China thinks about this warI think you mentioned a very important word which is often misquoted in the international media. Although they quoted in a right way to call it 'unlimited friendship.'

But this term is most misunderstood, in that..

Think of this. When people talk about their friendship, of course they wish this friendship would last. And should we say, in spite of friendship, this friendship is limited? We cannot say our friendship should be limited.

So, this is a kind of a goodwill gesture. But in the statement where this word is mentioned, we're also talked about, this is not a military alliance.

FT：Would you say there are now divergences in view between China and Russia over the war in Ukraine? Do you feel that there is tension in China with regard to what Russia is doing in Ukraine?

Zhou Bo：Well, certainly not happy to see this war, because it has strongly affected Chinese interests.

When I talk about Chinese interests, well, because China now is the largest trading nation, largest industrial nation in the world.

Therefore Chinese interests are almost ubiquitous everywhere. And in Europe it actually has affected China's belt-and-road initiative.

It actually has worsened China's relationship with many European capitals who believe China should actually take sides.You know, not to take Russia’s side on this issue.

So it is damaging to China in many ways.But China has to be very careful on this issue, because as this is a bit like being sandwiched between two friends.

So is my friend's enemy also my enemy? Not necessarily. And I think the Chinese position has paid off because both sides would understand this position.

Having said that, this does not mean that China would just stand idly by and watch this going on.

No, China is not. And China cannot afford to behave like that. Because China is a great power, and a great power shoulders great responsibility... and what is China's great responsibility in this war? That is not to throw wood into the fire.

While this is certainly is an important issue about sovereignty, this is clearly an invasion of one country into another country.But at the same time people tend to forget why this has happened at all. Because ever since the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin, on to President Putin. They have all warned against this kind of NATO’s expansion, and they have all fell on deaf ears. Putin is different in that he put this kind of wording into military operation, and that is a difference.

FT：Do you feel that China has leverage with Russia, given that China is certainly a diplomatic ally of Russia? And if China does have leverage with Russia, can China use that leverage to prevent Russia from escalating the military conflict, perhaps beyond Ukraine into other parts of Europe?

Zhou Bo：I think China's leverage is certainly there.

For example, let's think about this. The world is afraid that President Putin might resort to use of nuclear weapons.China's voice matters, and China's friendship with Russia would matter all the more on this issue. So probably it has already played a significant role in reducing such nightmare from happening.

FT：Right. And is this a conscious effort by China at the moment, or is it a sort of passive wish that China has that Russia should restrain itself from any scenario in which it might use nuclear weapons?

Zhou Bo：As I said before, this is a difficult situation for China. But China is the second-largest economy in the world. China is a member of UN Security Council.

On such issue that is totally, deeply rooted in humanity, China must have its voice voiced.China must show to the international community what is the right thing to do and what are forbidden things that should never be carried out.

If we talk about the Global South, there are many countries who actually, more or less, would have sort of sympathies with Russia's position. So when we talk about world views we cannot only talk about what people think in the west.We have to think about the global response on this matter.

FT：Who would China primarily blame for the war in Ukraine? Would it be the eastward expansion of NATO, or would it be Putin's actions?

Zhou Bo：I would say NATO’s expansion is very much the fundamental reason why Russia has actually taken such actions.

So, for military alliances they have to find a threat to justify their own existence, to justify the expansion. Because they live by expansion.

But when I think about Nato I believe it is not morally justifiable for the continued existence of Nato.

Why do I say that? Because if it is a bunch of small countries, you know, getting united against a big power, then I understand.But if the strongest nations on Earth would become united, then I would have to think, for what? This is for political reasons. Because you are already strong enough militarily.

FT：I suppose China's image and China's reputation has been damaged in Europe because of the war and because of the friendship that China has with Russia, which has been... Well, certainly, rhetorically unwavering during the war. Now that it looks like we may be moving to a new phase and possibly towards an end game of the war in Ukraine, do you think that China really wants to repair its relations with Europe?

Zhou Bo：Well, I think it would be wrong to conclude that China's image is damaged. Because I believe the West has to think of China's role, not only through its own prism, but you put yourself in the shoes of China.

Put yourself in the shoes of India. Put yourself in the shoes of the countries in the global south.You would find China's position is not a unique position.

Actually, let's talk about another issue, about liberal democracy. Well, if this has something to do with order, what is apparent is not only the world is becoming less western, but also the west itself is becoming less western.

Yes. This is not my conclusion. This is the conclusion of Munich Security Conference. Yeah, this is the theme of one of the conferences.So, we are seeing global democracy declining. And I believe it will continue to decline. Because it has declined for about 15 or 16 years.

FT：So what's China's view on its relationship with Europe?

If we are moving towards a potential endgame in the war in Ukraine, does that present an opportunity for China to improve its relations with Europe?

Zhou Bo：China definitely would like to secure good relationship with Europe.

That means we do not want you to take sides, as always, on American side.

This is a very simple, good wish from China, and Europe has so many things for us - high-tech technology and markets. All these things are needed for China.Then the question lies more with how Europe would look at China.

So, this is kind of describing China as an economic competitor, partner somewhere, and a systemic rival. Altogether, it's confusing for China.So, I believe it tells about the confusion of Europe as a whole.

Yeah. There are so many slogans in Europe which are difficult to understand, even for Europeans.

For example, like, strategic autonomy, so on and so forth. And I hope this war actually would make Europeans to think about things more independently.

FT：At some point, the war in Ukraine will end.

And at that point, what kind of posture do you think China will take?

Is China interested, for instance, to help rebuild Ukraine?

We all know that China's been building infrastructure all over the world and lending about a trillion US dollars to the belt-and-road initiative to build infrastructure.

So do you think China might be looking for that kind of role in Ukraine after the war has ended, whenever that may be?

Zhou Bo：If China can invest trillions of dollars in belt-and-road initiative, that actually is around the world.

Why can't China help a war-torn country, which is always friendly toward China?

So, this is possible.

The second thing is about China's capability in infrastructure building.

So China actually could make...

If you look at the world, the roads that China builds, the houses or the buildings that China built... .

They are much faster in being made, and they are more affordable.

And this is important for a war-torn country like Ukraine.

So I believe China doesn't have exceptional capability, but China has unique capabilities in the postwar era for rebuilding a more beautiful Ukraine.

FT：Senior Colonel Zhou, thank you very much indeed for talking to us.

Zhou Bo：Thank you.

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